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Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has arrived in India at the head of what the government describes as one of the largest ever regional trade missions, bringing northern Mayors, two other Cabinet ministers and more than 100 businesses to Delhi and Mumbai. The Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade announced the trip on 12 October 2026.
It is the first big public test of the UK-India Free Trade Agreement since it entered into force three months ago. Ministers say deals worth nearly £12 billion have been struck since the agreement was signed in July 2025, and the government's own impact assessment sets out what it expects the deal to deliver over the long run.
At a Glance
- The government says the India trade mission has unlocked more than £1 billion in new deals, taking the total struck since the FTA was signed in July 2025 to nearly £12 billion.
- Total UK-India trade was worth £48 billion in the 12 months to March 2026, an increase of £3 billion on the previous year in current prices.
- Meta for Data Technologies plans to invest £50 million in the UK and create 500 jobs in London and Manchester.
- The government's impact assessment estimates the FTA will raise UK GDP by 0.13%, or £4.8 billion a year, and lift real wages by 0.19%.
- The same assessment expects some sectors, led by textiles, apparel and leather, to produce less output than they would without the agreement.
Who is on the India trade mission and what are they there to do?
The "Great North" mission is billed as an effort to promote regional strengths to one of the world's fastest growing economies. Reynolds is travelling with a group of northern Mayors and one combined authority leader, alongside Environment Secretary Angela Eagle and Scotland Secretary Douglas Alexander. More than 100 businesses from a range of sectors have joined them.
The delegation reflects how broad the agreement is meant to be. Representatives from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, the British Meat Processors Association, Fever Tree, Kendamil, the National Farmers' Union, Salmon Scotland, the Scotch Whisky Association and Walker's Shortbread are on the trip, according to the government.
Reynolds will co-chair the latest UK-India Joint Economic and Trade Committee with Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. He will also co-chair the UK-India Science and Innovation Council with India's Minister for Science and Technology, Jitendra Singh. Other engagements include a meeting with the Chief Minister of Maharashtra to launch closer regional economic cooperation, a trade marketplace bringing British and Indian firms together, and a Premier League community football event in Mumbai.
The deals announced so far, jobs, investment and export wins
The headline commercial wins cut both ways. Some bring investment into the UK, while others are export contracts for British firms selling into India.
On the investment side, Meta for Data Technologies plans to put £50 million into the UK, creating 500 highly skilled jobs in London and Manchester. The government says the money will fund an AI and data research centre, an engineering and AI hub, and a quantum computing lab in Greater Manchester.
The largest export deal comes from Menzies Aviation, which is expected to generate more than £600 million in revenue from a 15 year Ground Handling Licence at India's largest domestic cargo facility in Bengaluru. The government's notes to editors say the deal is backed by a £6 million investment and will create more than 1,000 jobs.
Smaller names appear across the list. Children's wear brand Angel & Rocket plans 100 stores in India over five years, with an estimated £43 million in revenue. Cambridge based Panakeia is expected to generate £27.6 million through the use of AI in breast cancer diagnosis, beginning with Dr Lal PathLabs. The notes to editors project the expansion could benefit around 115,000 patients. Oxford Nanopore is due to sign a memorandum of understanding with India's Biotechnology Research and Innovation Council Centre for DNA Fingerprinting and Diagnostics, which will launch a Centre for Excellence in Hyderabad.
Education features too. The University of Liverpool's Bengaluru campus opens officially this week, with 10,000 students anticipated to be studying there within ten years.
These figures are the government's own projections and company estimates. The announcement describes them as expected or estimated revenue, not confirmed income, so they should be read as targets rather than outcomes.
Whisky, salmon and cars, how tariffs have changed
Food and drink exporters are a prominent part of the mission. The government says whisky tariffs have already been halved from 150% to 75%, that salmon can now enter India tariff free, and that products such as shortbread are also benefiting.
The impact assessment gives the longer term picture. Whisky and gin duties fall from 150% to 75% when the agreement enters into force, then to 40% after staging, which runs for up to ten years. For cars, a quota reduces the tariff from up to 110% to 10%.
More broadly, the agreement removes or reduces tariffs on 90% of tariff lines, covering 92% of India's goods imports from the UK in 2022 after staging. The assessment estimates import duties on UK exports will fall by around £400 million as soon as the deal takes effect, rising to approximately £900 million once full staging is complete. Duties on UK imports from India are expected to fall by £220 million.
Angela Eagle said the government is working to turn the deal's commitments into outcomes for British farmers and food and drink companies. Douglas Alexander said Scottish producers would be helped to access and navigate the Indian market.
UK-India FTA, what the impact assessment says about GDP and wages
The impact assessment, updated on 9 March 2026, is the main official source for the deal's expected economic effects. It models a long run of around 10 to 15 years and compares outcomes with a baseline in which no agreement exists.
On those terms, UK exports to India rise by nearly 60%, equivalent to an extra £15.7 billion when applied to projected trade in 2040. UK imports from India rise by 25%, or £9.8 billion. Bilateral trade overall grows by nearly 39%, or £25.5 billion a year. The assessment puts the permanent increase in UK GDP at 0.13%, worth £4.8 billion a year, and the rise in real wages at 0.19%, equivalent to £2.2 billion a year across the country.
Where the modelling points to gains
- Sixteen of the 23 UK sectors analysed may see higher gross value added in the long run.
- Machinery and equipment, along with chemical, rubber and plastic products, are expected to see the largest export increases.
- Scotch whisky and other beverage exports could rise by around £700 million, roughly 180% growth.
- Motor vehicle exports are estimated to rise by £890 million, or 310%.
Where the modelling points to pressure
- Textiles, apparel and leather output is projected to be £114 million (0.7%) lower than without the FTA.
- Other transport equipment could see output fall by around £85 million (0.4%).
- UK greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to rise by about 0.8 million tonnes, or 0.21%.
- Nepal and Sri Lanka could see a small negative GDP impact of less than £0.1 billion.
The assessment says all sectors affected would still be expected to grow, and that the FTA is not estimated to produce a significant change in the sectoral mix of the UK economy.
Which parts of the UK stand to benefit most
The assessment says every UK nation and English region could see an increase in real GVA. The West Midlands and the North East are expected to see the biggest relative gains, because of their concentration of motor vehicle and machinery manufacturing. The West Midlands is estimated to grow by 0.13% (£190 million) and the North East by 0.12% (£70 million).
Scotland is projected to gain around £190 million, Wales £80 million and Northern Ireland £50 million, relative to a baseline without the FTA. That regional framing is the logic behind a mission built around northern Mayors rather than ministers alone.
Will the UK-India trade deal deliver? What the forecasts can't tell us
The impact assessment is open about its limits. It says modelling the long run benefits of any FTA is subject to significant uncertainty, and more so for an economy as dynamic as India's. The results are not a forecast for UK growth or trade, it states, and cannot account for other factors such as later trade deals with the United States and European Union.
It also notes that bilateral trade has nearly doubled since 2019, the year its modelling dataset is set, so the estimates could understate the final impact. In its sensitivity analysis, the increase in UK GDP ranged between 0.11% and 0.14% in 90% of simulations.
The Department for Business and Trade will monitor implementation and carry out an ex-post evaluation of the agreement, including a follow up evaluation around ten years after entry into force. The latest trade figures give an early reading, UK-India trade stood at £48 billion in the 12 months to March 2026.
Key Takeaways
- The Great North mission brings Jonathan Reynolds, Angela Eagle, Douglas Alexander, northern Mayors and more than 100 businesses to Delhi and Mumbai.
- The government says deals worth nearly £12 billion have been struck since the UK-India FTA was signed in July 2025.
- Whisky tariffs have already halved from 150% to 75%, and the government's assessment expects them to fall to 40% after staging.
- The impact assessment estimates the FTA will add 0.13% to UK GDP and 0.19% to real wages in the long run.
- The assessment warns its estimates carry significant uncertainty and are not a forecast, with an ex-post evaluation planned.